Oregon’s Democratic governor is fighting to keep his job as Republican Christine Drazan threatens to end 40 years of Democratic rule in the Blue State.
A new Axios report details how Oregon Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek’s campaign is in deep trouble.
Surveys show a statistical tie, giving Republicans the best chance in years to win back the governor’s office in Oregon.
No Republican has won an Oregon governor’s race since Victor Atiyeh was re-elected in 1982.
Drazan nearly beat Kotek in 2022, losing by about three and a half percentage points.
A poll earlier this month by Oregon Public Broadcasting had Drazan leading Kotek 46 percent to 44 percent.
Undecided voters who said they were leaning one way or another put Drazan at 47% to Kotek’s 46%.
The poll had a margin of error of 3.24 percentage points, meaning that the difference was not statistically conclusive.
A separate poll commissioned by The Oregonian found Kotek narrowly ahead, 46% to 44%.
Kotek has wrestled with public opinion on how she has handled housing, homelessness and affordability.
A poll conducted by Oregon Public Broadcasting found 60 percent of those surveyed viewed the governor unfavorably.
Later reporting on that survey showed Drazan with a favorable rating of 45% to Kotek’s 38%.
The GOP challenger said Oregon families deserve economic growth, safer communities and responsible government.
🚨BREAKING: Republican candidate Christine Drazan ROASTS Oregon Governor Tina Kotek for blaming education on the federal government during Friday’s debate with The Oregonian!
Drazan: “You just can’t stop…“I can’t believe you’re not more responsible…!”
THIS IS THE DRAZAN OREGON NEEDS AND WANTS TO SEE! OREGON IS IN DISARRAY AND THE PEOPLE WANT COURAGE AND BOLDNESS! Drazan showed it here..! I’m PUMPED! — David Medina 🌲🇺🇸 (@davidmedinapdx) October 10, 2026 2026 Oregon Governor 🔵 Tina Kotek (inc) 46% 🔴 Christine Drazan 44%
Oregonian/Research poll | 10/1 https://t.co/Dh10SN6RcO — OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 23, 2026
Oregon’s economy and business climate have become a major campaign issue as households deal with rising costs.
Drazan wants to cut regulations and taxes to attract investment and make life more affordable.
Her administration has addressed long-standing problems with housing construction, behavioral healthcare improvements and other issues, Kotek said.
But critics say the state has not made as much progress as the governor promised.
In a recent report, only about 9,700 housing permits were issued in 2026, far short of Kotek’s annual construction goal of 36,000 homes.
Public debate over state leadership is being fueled by homelessness, a highly visible issue in Portland and other communities.
Drazan also campaigned in Democratic-leaning suburbs, seeking to win over voters beyond the traditional Republican electorate.
Candidates have also clashed over tax incentives for data centers and how they affect electricity costs.
Both campaigns know that concerns about energy use and economic development could sway undecided voters.
Another flashpoint is transportation taxes and spending by the government, where Republicans have organized substantial opposition.
The governor’s race has captured national attention because an upset would defy Oregon’s long-standing partisan alignment.
On the eve of Election Day, Republicans have the support of a large network of political spenders aligned with Trump and powerful national fundraising operations.
The Republican National Committee has raised about $341.5 million through Oct. 14 in the current cycle, federal filings show.
After heavy transfers, operations and campaign spending, the RNC said it had about $76.2 million left in cash.
The National Republican Congressional Committee had about $61.3 million in cash on hand at the beginning of October, according to figures it reported in September.
House Republicans also raised about $50 million in the third quarter, boosting their ability to defend vulnerable seats.
Associated Press reporting says Trump-aligned groups have spent nearly $277 million since early September to support Republican candidates nationwide.
MAGA Inc., the president’s flagship super PAC, sent $200 million to No Going Back PAC for campaign activity.
It also moved $25 million to Safety and Affordability PAC, helping fund more Republican messaging and advertising.
The same reports showed that as of October 14, MAGA Inc. had more than $164 million in cash on hand, despite the heavy spending.
Previous filings showed the group starting September with almost $416 million, an indication of the mind-blowing size of its fundraising.
Trump has said his political network could spend more than $400 million by the election.
